The 2024 general election result
How are the parties doing in the latest polls?
There has been a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls in recent weeks, with the Conservatives now leading Labour by just 3 points. This is down from a 15-point lead in mid-June.
What do the polls tell us about the likely outcome of the election?
Our prediction model, which is based on the latest opinion polls, suggests that the Conservatives are likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons, but that Labour will make significant gains. The model predicts that the Conservatives will win 315 seats, Labour will win 260 seats, the Liberal Democrats will win 12 seats, the Scottish National Party will win 50 seats, Plaid Cymru will win 3 seats, the Green Party will win 1 seat, and other parties will win 1 seat.
These predictions are based on the latest opinion polls, and it is important to note that the polls can be wrong. However, the polls do suggest that the Conservatives are likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons, but that Labour will make significant gains.
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